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The integration of extended reality technologies into industrial product design evaluation introduces a class of psychological variables, such as sense of presence, embodied cognition, and emotional arousal, that are absent from conventional flat-screen computer-aided design environments. Despite growing adoption of immersive head-mounted display systems for prototype assessment, no empirically validated model exists to explain how these psychophysiological states influence the quality and reliability of design judgments produced within immersive conditions. This study proposes and tests a four-layer psychophysiological framework linking extended reality modality type to design judgment reliability through three simultaneous mediators: subjective presence, galvanic skin response amplitude, and eye-tracking fixation duration. A within-subject experiment was conducted with 48 industrial designers and mechanical engineers who evaluated an identical computer-aided design prototype across four counterbalanced conditions: flat-screen display, augmented reality, virtual reality, and mixed reality. Heart rate variability, galvanic skin response, and fixation duration were recorded continuously alongside the ITC-Sense of Presence Inventory and a semantic differential judgment scale. Structural equation modelling confirmed full mediation of the display-condition effect on judgment reliability by the three psychophysiological pathways, with emotional arousal emerging as the strongest mediator. Extended reality experience level moderated arousal responses in expert users, preserving judgment reliability across immersive conditions. These findings offer the first empirically grounded framework linking immersive display technology to evaluative cognition in engineering design contexts.